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☆ Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -109.50 in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. A yield curve inversion - in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities - has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis points at 4.913% in morning trading Monday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.2 basis points to 3.831%.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Ian Lyngen, Treasuries, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, BMO, San Francisco Fed, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S

☆ Analysis: Contrarians bet U.S. energy shares will shake doldrums in 2023's second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That has hurt shares of energy companies: after soaring in 2022, the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) has lost nearly 10% this year, making it the index’s worst performing sector. Most investors believe central bank interest rate hikes to fight inflation should keep a lid on global growth for the time being. Yet some are positioning for a rebound in energy shares, drawn by attractive valuations and signs the U.S. will continue to stave off an economic downturn. Stan Majcher, a portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley, is among those counting on oil prices rebounding due to tight supply. “If you don’t get it, the path of least resistance is for oil prices to move much higher," he said.

Persons: Brent, David Lefkowitz, Baker Hughes, Stan Majcher, Refinitiv, Charles Lemonides, Sam Peters, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, UBS Wealth Management, UBS, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, . West Texas, Brent, U.S, drillers, Hotchkis, Wiley, Kosmos Energy Ltd, Bank of America Survey, Hess Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Saudi Arabia

☆ Retail investors slow to buy into ARK Innovation Fund's blistering rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 21(Reuters) - Individual investors have given a cold shoulder to Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund during their searing run this year, but some market watchers believe that may change if risk appetite keeps improving. The $8 billion fund, which outperformed all U.S. equity funds during the pandemic rally of 2020 but suffered a steep fall last year, is up nearly 37% year-to-date, outpacing broader markets. ARK Invest, the fund's parent company, did not respond to a request for comment. Domestic equity funds and ETFs posted a total of $151.3 billion in outflows year to date through June 7th, according to data from trade group the Investment Company Institute. Optimism among individual investors vaulted to a 19-month high in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey.

Persons: Todd Rosenbluth, Rosenbluth, Virag Shah, Van, Morgan Stanley, Shah, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Innovation Fund, Invest, Investment Company Institute, Van Leeuwen & Company, American, of, Tesla, Roku Inc, Sciences, Thomson Locations: Van Leeuwen

The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.

Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Persons: ”, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors rethink recession plays, boosting U.S. stock market laggards
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"There's reason to believe that the pessimism we saw at the start of the year is giving way to a stronger-than-expected market." Murray has increased his allocation to small-cap stocks, which tend to be among the most direct beneficiaries of economic growth. Other rebounding segments in June include the S&P 500 energy sector, which has gained 6% this month and S&P 500 industrials, up 5.7%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are firmer for the month to date, compared to only six for the year. Stronger-than-expected jobs growth and robust consumer spending have been among the data points that have bolstered investors' economic outlook.

Persons: Tim Murray, T Rowe Price's, Murray, Russell, Dow, Howard Silverblatt, Goldman Sachs, Saira Malik, Max Wasserman, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Energy, Reuters, Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Nvidia Corp, Tesla Inc, Dow Jones, Capital Economics, Miramar Capital, Starbucks Corp, Target Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

“The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday. S&P Global Ratings stripped the United States of its coveted top rating over a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, a few days after a last-minute agreement the agency at the time said did not stabilize "medium-term debt dynamics." S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody's did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ Analysis: US debt ceiling deal could stall safety flight fueling megacap rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.

The S&P Regional Banking Index fell approximately 25% during the quarter as a run on deposits sank Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, both of which were at the time the largest banking failures since the Great Financial Crisis. The S&P Regional Banking index is now down 36% for the year to date. Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management, meanwhile, added a number of new positions in regional banks, including stakes in First Republic, PacWest (PACW.O) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N). Shares of regional banks have remained volatile in recent weeks, with some investors wary of more tumult to come in the sector. London-based Marshall Wace sold 51,300 shares of First Republic in the first quarter, closing its position in the bank.

☆ 'Big Short' investor Burry bet on regional banks in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A branch of First Republic Bank is seen. First Republic collapsed May 1, making it the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. The filings did not show whether Scion had sold its positions before then. The positions were revealed in quarterly securities fillings known as 13-fs. Burry was featured in the 2010 nonfiction book "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis which was made into a popular movie five years later.

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies LLC was among the prominent funds that took positions in embattled regional bank First Republic Bank (FRCB.PK) during the first quarter ahead of the firm's May 1 collapse, according to securities filings released on Monday. Renaissance Technologies LLC, which has more than $100 billion in assets under management, bought approximately 7.1 million shares of First Republic during the first quarter and held them as of March 31, when they closed at $13.99 per share. Boston-based Adage Capital Partners, meanwhile, added a new position of approximately 185,000 shares of First Republic during the quarter, while New York-based Alpine Global Management LP added a new position of approximately 1.7 million shares in the company, filings showed. Renaissance Technologies, Adage Capital and Alpine Global did not respond to requests to comment for this story. Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Arrowstreet, Coatue Management among big hedge funds buying Meta in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Prominent hedge funds including Arrowstreet Capital LLC, D1 Capital Partners and Coatue Management LLC were among the investors that bought shares of Meta Platforms Inc in the first quarter of the year, amid an eye-popping rebound in the Facebook-parent’s stock. Arrowstreet Capital added about 5 million shares during the quarter, brining its total position to slightly more than 7 million shares, while Coatue more than doubled its position in the company by buying 4.2 million shares. Winslow Capital Management, meanwhile, initiated a new position in the firm by buying about 927,000 shares, and D1 Capital Partners bought slightly more than 1 million shares. Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, was the largest seller among all firms, unloading more than 35 million shares during the quarter. Two Sigma Investments sold its entire stake of about 569,000 shares, while Glenview Capital Management, run by billionaire Larry Robbins, sold its entire stake of about 526,000 shares, according to filings.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

In theory, that should be welcome news for stocks and other so-called risk assets, which wilted under the barrage of hikes last year. Yet some investors worry this year's 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 has made equities expensive. Many are also wary that the Fed's rate hikes may precipitate a recession later this year. Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.7%, after the Fed's latest policy decision in which the central bank also raised rates by 25 basis points, as markets expected. Friday's U.S. employment report and next week's consumer price index data may give investors a sense of how deeply the Fed's rate hikes have seeped into the economy.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead- Tech earnings to test markets' 'most crowded' trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - A blistering rally in megacap growth and technology shares has buoyed markets this year, and earnings reports in coming weeks could help investors determine if those gains are justified. Technology earnings are seen falling 14.4%. Earnings will show "whether this is really a safe haven if you are worried about recession." Still, gains could fizzle if the Fed does not cut interest rates this year, as widely expected. Growth stocks are especially vulnerable to high borrowing costs, which threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Consumer stocks' earnings may offer clues on U.S. economy’s resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Companies in the consumer discretionary spending sector reporting next week include Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) and AutoNation Inc (AN.N). Reuters GraphicsGrowing recession fears over the last year have already prompted many consumer discretionary companies to cut costs to boost margins, which may lead to positive earnings surprises this quarter, Melson said. Part of that expected growth comes from a job market that has remained robust, helping buoy consumer spending, said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment inched up in April, but households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, has winnowed his holdings of consumer discretionary stocks in anticipation of a recession later this year.

☆ Slowing US inflation shifts investor focus to earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wednesday’s data showed consumer prices growing at a slower pace than expected last month, bolstering the argument that inflation is decelerating. Yet some investors believe markets may have already accounted for a mild inflation slowdown and say further gains in stocks could depend on whether upcoming corporate earnings - especially results from banks - can beat forecasts. Earnings per share for the six largest U.S. banks are expected to fall 10% from the same quarter last year, according to Refinitv data. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% in the first quarter of 2023 from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv as of April 7 showed. That weakness would come on the heels of a 3.2% earnings fall in the fourth quarter of 2022, a back-to-back decline known as an earnings recession which has not occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020.

Such diversification failed to benefit investors last year, when stocks and bonds both tumbled as the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight surging inflation. A typical 60/40 portfolio tracked by Vanguard last year suffered its worst annual decline since 2008. "Inflation, and the perception of tighter credit as a result of inflation, is going to hurt both bonds and stocks,” he said. But benchmark Treasury yields drifted lower, at least partially offsetting those declines. "We now have yield in the bond market, which we haven’t had for 10 years," said Paul Nolte, market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

☆ Analysis: Investors seek value in clobbered U.S. regional bank shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ETF has slumped nearly 26% since March 8, when SVB's troubles became known, while the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (.SPSIRBK) is down around 23%. Concerns over deposit flight are still swirling around some regional banks. He owns shares of large regional banks including Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N), which have fallen about 22% so far this year, and US Bancorp (USB.N), which are down some 18%. Margie Patel, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, has been adding new positions in regional banks over the last few weeks, citing "value." Regional banks "need positive news that shows their deposits are holding firm or growing," said Rick Meckler, a partner at family office Cherry Lane Investments.

☆ Analysis: Banking woes, Fed keep U.S. market investors on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But investors are guarded, wary that another bank run could erupt if people believe U.S. or European regulators won't protect depositors. Uncertainty over the Fed's intentions is amplifying investors’ hesitation in stocks and sparking huge swings in U.S. government bond prices. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday but indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. Risk assets have been somewhat resilient despite the concerns in the banking sector, said Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. England expects longer-duration bond yields to start to rise from current levels, making short-term bonds and money market funds more attractive.

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets, with traditional safe-havens such as gold, Treasuries and money markets seeing high demand along with more speculative instruments such as tech stocks and bitcoin. The gains have come alongside big moves in assets traditionally perceived as safe-havens during uncertain times. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, saw a historic drop last week, while money market funds notched their biggest inflows since April 2020 in the week to March 15, Refinitiv Lipper data showed. Well, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down about 60 basis points from early March,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Monday report. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Whipsawed U.S. stocks have gained an unexpected ally in recent days - a historic plunge in bond yields. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The index finished up 1.4% for the week, with strength in technology stocks outweighing sharp declines in bank shares. Tech stocks vs US bond yieldsThe near-term trajectory of yields will likely hinge on next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 trades at 17.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

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